Intervenant

Ingénieur de formation, Emmanuel Kemel a poursuivi ses études en économie et en sciences cognitives. Il a travaillé comme expert pour le Ministère du Développement Durable, et soutenu une thèse en économie à l’Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne en 2014. Depuis 2015, il travaille au GREGHEC en tant que chercheur CNRS et est professeur affilié à HEC.
Ses travaux portent sur l’observation et l’analyse des attitudes vis-à-vis du temps et de l’incertitude. Il est notamment spécialisé dans la construction et l’analyse économétrique d’expériences comportementales. Les résultats empiriques et méthodologiques de ses travaux s’appliquent au management et à la micro-économie, mais également à l’évaluation des politiques publiques.
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Abstract

« Attitudes towards intervals of probabilities: an experimental investigation »
M. Abdellaoui, T. Astebro et C. Paraschiv
In his two-color paradox, Ellsberg (1961) argued that most decision makers prefer a risky option giving a prize with probability 0.5 to an ambiguous option giving the same prize with the winning probability lying somewhere between 0 and 1. Many subsequent Ellsberg-like experiments refined the two-color example by focusing on the general case where the winning probability belongs to subintervals. The present paper reports the results of an experimental investigation on attitudes towards bets where the decision maker can get a prize with a winning probability lying somewhere in a given interval. We postulate a model in which decision makers evaluate these ambiguous bets by subjectively combining the values of envelope (extreme) lotteries, whose probabilities correspond to the lower bound and the upper bound of the interval. We elicited this model with data from a laboratory experiment. All the components of the models are estimated at the individual level using econometric modeling. We observe that probability weighting of the upper bound is radically different from probability weighting of the lower bound: the former is concave whereas the latter is convex. Additionally, the convex combination of these two functions allows to recover the inverse-S shape probability weighting generally observed for risk. Therefore, our model not only explains ambiguity attitudes but also offers a new insight to understand the shape of probability weighting under risk.

Lien de connexion pour y participer : https://us02web.zoom.us/j/87887342600